Normal Distribution and Expected Moves: A Trader’s Guide

What is a normal distribution?

A normal distribution is a bell‑shaped probability curve where:

• Most outcomes cluster around the mean (average).
• The further you move away from the mean, the less likely outcomes become.
• The curve is symmetric, so big moves up and down are equally likely (under the model).

In a perfect normal distribution, the mean, median, and mode are all the same point at the center of the curve.